Clarifying September's reported sales gains in Canada


Stats Can and media reported that September's retail sales gains exceeded expectations.  This surprises me.  They were exactly where they should have been.

First, the Lehman collapse did not occur til the second half of the month.  Furthermore, Gasoline prices were declining and the comparative August 2008 sales were low (a harbinger perhaps).  September was exactly where it should have been.

Stats Can reports month over month changes, seasonally adjusted per 'normal' historical patterns.  The retailers themselves benchmark to raw data comparisons to the same period last year. Even here, the comparative September 2007 reported unusually low sales, perhaps masking the true nature of retail sales this summer - mediocre.

Of course this is a moot point, as the recent past will have little meaning in the crazy times ahead.  We just need to push for valid interpretations of the tea leaves...